Predictions for the Final 14 Cases

The end of the October 2010 Supreme Court Term is almost here. Here are the FantasySCOTUS Prediction Tracker picks for the remaining 14 cases. I divided the cases into two categories: first, the cases where we are virtually certainty of the outcome (at a 99% confidence level); second, the cases where we are not certain of the outcome. If you are interested in learning more about FantasySCOTUS as a crowdsourced prediction market, please take a look at an essay I co-authored. I will compare these predictions to Tom Goldstein’s predictions at SCOTUSBlog in tomorrow’s Supreme Court Insider.


FantasySCOTUS Certainty
Brown v. EMA Affirm Yes at 99% (83%+/-4.52)
Wal-Mart v. Dukes Reverse Yes at 99% (75%+/-12.3)
Az Free Enterprise/McComish v. Bennett Reverse Yes at 99% (72%+/-14)
CSX v. McBride Affirm Yes at 99% (85%+/-17.3)
Sorrell v. IMS Affirm Yes at 99% (77%+/-18.3)
Am. Elec. Power Co. v. Conn. Reverse Yes at 99% (70%+/-18.4)
Goodyear v. Brown Reverse Yes at 99% (66%+/-12.1)

Not Confident

FantasySCOTUS Certainty
Stern v. Marshall Affirm No (52% +/-12.1 for 90%)
Freeman v. US Reverse No (52%+/-11.6 for 90%)
Duryea v. Guarnieri Affirm No (53%+/-14 for 90%)
Turner v. Rogers Reverse No (56%+/-14 for 90%)
Bullcoming v. New Mexico Reverse No (57%+/-9.53 for 90%)
McIntyre v. Nicastro Affirm No (55%+/-8.35 for 90%)

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