Lewis Libby (66%) Guilty
While Scott may not be “100% sold on either side” of the Libby trial, two-thirds of traders on the prediction markets think that he will be found guilty of lying on at least one charge against him. This is a notable upswing from last June, when I wrote about the market and its intricacies. I then pointed out that prices for these “conviction contracts” include a discount for the likelihood of a plea, so that in the months before trial, prices for conviction are likely to be depressed. I think that the rise in the price of Libby’s conviction stock demonstrates the point. Although there were few surprises at trial, traders raised the likelihood of conviction by over 20% after it began, representing the end of the plea discount and the market’s real estimation of the likelihood of conviction. Notably, traders don’t seem to think that a mistrial is terribly likely, although the likelihood of conviction has decreased from 75% at the beginning of the jury’s deliberations.
For what it is worth, I tend to agree with Scott that the length of the jury’s deliberations is a mark of seriousness and worth. If we wanted a quick and summary answer, we wouldn’t use a jury, we’d flip a coin.