I tend to think that when someone says “This is how it should be” or “As it was, so it shall be” there’s a good chance that the claims are incorrect. Marc Levinson’s book, An Extraordinary Time, hits an area, where I have had that gut feeling that something isn’t correct, quite well. Can the US and the world reach the levels of growth that happened after WWII and ended around 1973? Short answer not likely. The book goes into the various technocrat approaches to fixing the economy, and then the book shows that none of those really hold up. A quote from Paul Samuelson sums up “The third quarter of the Twentieth Century was a golden age of economic progress. It surpassed any reasoned expectation. And we are not likely to see its equivalent anytime soon again.” One specific area, the use of tariffs to protect American jobs, jumped out for me. After resisting pressure for tariffs on bolts, nuts, and screws (yes a major area it seems), in 1978 the Carter Administration caved and imposed a 15% tariff that lasted three years. US manufacturers raised their prices so that tariff protection cost was passed to consumers. One study estimated that limiting imports from Asia (the target of the tariff) cost $550,000 per job “saved” while the average job in that industry made $23,000 per year. And the tariff did not save the industry. By the mid 1980s sales of the US industry in that sector had lost about 15%. When it came to autos, trade limits with Japan saved 44,100 US jobs. That is great. But one study says that the cost to consumers was $8.5 billion, because of higher prices “or $193,000 per additional job–approximately six times the annual pay of an American autoworker.” And Japanese automakers still sold their cars at the higher prices and so made “perhaps $7 billion in added profit” which was re-invested in building plants in the US and developing higher-end cars. That is they seem to have become more competitive. I note these details, not because I am an avid free-trade person. I note them not because I think those who are displaced by the way society and industry change should be shoved aside or chewed up. I note them, because it seems to me that some of the core points about trade policy hold up, if we want lower consumer prices. Remember that part of being able to buy lower cost and super cool TVs, cars, etc. means our dollars are able to buy other things too. There are oceans of ink on the way trade and costs ought to spur overall good things. I leave that for others and other posts. For this post, the core issue is what happens when large swaths of society, be they in the vast plains or the former industrial giants or in cities and suburbs, aren’t able to have jobs and so their place in society is unstable? Levinson’s book goes to the...
Author: Deven Desai
Gerard makes a good point about the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, but there may a related idea that helps (and shows the limits of the Amendment). Perhaps the President, as with many folks as we age, has a front lobe problem. These ideas apply to many more than the President. There is some evidence that our frontal lobe decays as we age; when that happens executive control goes down and we are less able to manage many things. This abstract for the paper Aging, Executive Functioning, and Social Control says it all rather well Aging is associated with atrophy of the frontal lobes of the brain, which are the seat of executive functions. Because successful social functioning often requires executive control, aging can lead to unintended social changes via deficits in executive control. In this article I review evidence that, due to losses in executive control, aging leads to increased prejudice and social inappropriateness and, under certain circumstances, increased depression and problem gambling. I then discuss theory and research suggesting possible interventions that might ameliorate unwanted social changes brought about by executive decline. Yes. The part of our brain that is “the seat of executive functions, which include tasks such as planning and controlling thought and behavior” decay with age. This change can lead to “poor executive functioning, including reduced ability to inhibit irrelevant or unwanted thoughts.” How does this play out? It seems a variety of things can happen. Prejudice: “Automatic or unintentional stereotypic thoughts appear to be common in most people (Devine, 1989), and it might be that older adults have greater difficulty inhibiting these stereotypic thoughts despite their efforts to avoid being prejudiced. Thus, older adults might also be more prejudiced than younger adults because they can no longer inhibit their unintentionally activated stereotypes.” Inhibition and Social Inappropriateness: “findings suggest a dissociation between knowledge of social rules and the ability to follow them that is consistent with other types of frontal lobe damage.” Inhibition and Depression: As I read the paper, the results are not settled except that “age-related inhibitory deficits might also contribute to late-onset depression by impairing control of excessive rumination (a tendency to focus on one’s problems without engaging in active problem solving, which exacerbates and prolongs depression).” The paper is clear that the key issue is “those older adults who rely on inhibitory control to stop themselves from ruminating (either chronically or when confronted by negative life events) are likely to develop problems with rumination if they have poor executive control.” Inhibition and Gambling: Again not conclusive: “Analogous to the case with late-onset depression, poor inhibitory ability is unlikely to lead to gambling problems in all or even most older adults. Rather inhibitory deficits might lead to gambling problems only among those who struggle with their impulse to gamble. That is, people who gamble and who are impulsive by nature might be at risk for developing gambling problems as they age, due to losses in the ability to restrain their urge to gamble.” SOLUTIONS: Apparently...
Given how often we see the utter dysfunction of Congress, when I see a sign of Congress working, it merits calling out. According to the Washington Post, “The Senate has passed a much-anticipated bill proposing broad reforms to an existing chemical safety law — one which environmentalists have long argued puts the American public at unnecessary risk of exposure to toxic substances.” The law, the TSCA, is about 40 years old and requires so much proof of harm that even a substance like asbestos was difficult to regulate let alone ban. Thus “The bill, dubbed the Frank R. Lautenberg Chemical Safety for the 21st Century Act, [and which] has been in negotiations for more than two years and finally went to a vote Thursday night, where it passed with bipartisan support” is a big step forward. The Post details that some groups dislike parts of the bill, and the House version is less broad, but it too has bipartisan support. If al goes well and the final version has teeth, that would mean both houses and the parties can fix a bill like this one, and that is a great sign. As a general note, I am curious about the proof standard at issue. If folks who follow this area know what it is or have thoughts on what is should be, please share.
With the resurgence of cocktail culture, one may not think about a bartender’s work area, but it turns out that area is not well-designed so much so that bartenders have health problems and they can make fewer drinks. So in the age of let’s design and fix that, a bartender has come up with an “ergonomic, behind-the-bar workstation—which he calls the ‘race track’.” The new design lets the bartender stay in one place, have everything within forearm reach, and gets rid of the well (across which a bartender must lean and thus hurt his or her knees). The creator is seeking a patent, and the expected cost right now is five figures (they are hand built). The Wired piece covers some history of the bar and how ice changed the way we drink and how today the craft cocktail trend means efficiency is at a premium. As Wired notes A good bar with a smartly built bartender station, on the other hand, is a blue-ribbon-prize-winning cash cow. Your typical cocktail den, Simó says, will rake in between $6,000 and $8,000 in sales in a night. At a nightclub, you more than triple that. A single bartender can ring in $10,000 in sales, by himself. That’s all contingent on how fast he can sling drinks, and Lafranconi says the race track is optimized for that kind of speed. “We can increase the output by about 10 to 15 drinks per hour.” Throw in the health issues–“Tending bar in 10-hour shifts, night after night, can lead to injuries like tennis elbow, tendonitis, and plantar fasciitis”–and the future bar will let you be closer to the bartender, get your drink faster, and keep him or her in good enough health to be there the next time you visit. Pretty cool.
By now many may know that The Beatles catalog (or most of it) is available for streaming on the major services. I happen to love The Beatles and easily recommend Cirque du Soleil’s Love in Las Vegas. But the streaming option presents some questions to which I have not seen answers. First, did the services offer anything extra or special to get the rights (I can’t recall the state of streaming license law as far as flat rate or baseline rate to stream if the rights are granted)? Second, will the rights holders (I can’t recall where those have ended up) track the money from streaming versus selling the tracks and albums? If they do what will they find? Work on P2P music sharing and its effect on music and a study on the effect of free options for film may shed light on the future for Beatles revenues. The film study offered: Together our results suggest that creative artists can use product differentiation and market segmentation strategies to compete with freely available copies of their content. Specifically, the post-broadcast increase in DVD sales suggests that giving away content in one channel can stimulate sales in a paid channel if the free content is sufficiently differentiated from its paid counterpart. Likewise, our finding that the presence of pirated content does not cannibalize sales for the movies in our sample suggests that if free and paid products appeal to separate customer segments, the presence of free products need not harm paid sales. If music works in a way similar to film, The Beatles rights holders may expand their pie, not reduce it. Either way I am happy to enjoy the streaming options while they last.
The annual AALS meeting is in New York in 2016. A few folks have asked whether I will be there. I am not able to attend, but in the spirit of it’s good to get out and see more than the law (or take a friend and go for a good long chat about legal scholarship), I see that that MOMA is pulling out its Jackson Pollock collection. The write up in the New Yorker is short and captures his evolution and why you should go. Pollock was always Pollock, though he was long in agonizing doubt, notably about his ability to draw. Dripping brought a rush of relief, as he found a steadying and dispassionate, heaven-sent collaborator: gravity. Drawing in the air above the canvas freed him from, among other things, himself. “Number 31” is the feat of a fantastic talent no longer striving for expression but set to work and monitored. He watched what it did. We join him in watching. Pollock redefined painting to make it accept the gifts that he had been desperate to give. Any time is the right one to be reminded of that. Sorry to miss AALS and the exhibit, but there will be other chances to enjoy both.
Trading Places is a Christmas movie in that it is set during the holidays and I suppose making hundreds of millions (or probably billions in today’s dollars) is a 1980s Christmas wish as compared to other Christmas wish movies. It is a heart-warming story of a young Eddie Murphy and Dan Akroyd taking on the entrenched elite by, oh well, by insider trading. The ending and the glory of frozen concentrated orange juice live on. First the full explanation of how the two manage to out maneuver the Dukes is a little tricky. But after the thirtieth anniversary a two years ago, a few places explain it nicely. NPR’s coverage is succinct. Business Insider is good and has better pictures. But the best is from Don’t Worry I am an Economist which has a step-by-step on short selling, and then applies it to the movie including explaining how the pricing worked (142 is in fact A $1.42 and 29 is $0.29 per pound but the contracts are for thousands of pounds thus “Trading begins at 102 cents per pound (at 15,000 pounds of F.C.O.J. per contract – size of a typical contract – the value of a single contract is $15,300).”.). So he shows that How much have they made? Let’s see. In the movie Winthorpe says they’ve moved around 20,000 contracts. Assuming they’ve sold short at a constant pace from 142 down to 102, and that later they’ve bought them back while the price was falling from 46 down to 29, let’s say that the average sell price was around 122 cents per pound, where the average buy-back price was 37.5 cents per pound. The spread is therefore 122 – 37.5 = 84.5 cents per pound profit. Per single contract this is 15,000 pounds * 84.5 cents per pound = $12,675 per contract. Multiply this by roughly 20,000 contracts and their total profit was: $253,500,000. Oh and here is the law and regulation part: The movie was explicitly invoked as the Eddie Murphy rule when the government finally made insider trading on the commodities market illegal. Per the WSJ when the rule passed CFTC Chief Gary Gensler explained: We have recommended banning using misappropriated government information to trade in the commodity markets. In the movie “Trading Places,” starring Eddie Murphy, the Duke brothers intended to profit from trades in frozen concentrated orange juice futures contracts using an illicitly obtained and not yet public Department of Agriculture orange crop report. Characters played by Eddie Murphy and Dan Aykroyd intercept the misappropriated report and trade on it to profit and ruin the Duke brothers. In real life, using such misappropriated government information actually is not illegal under our statute. To protect our markets, we have recommended what we call the “Eddie Murphy” rule to ban insider trading using nonpublic information misappropriated from a government source. Law and lit and reg I guess. Anyway Merry Christmas and in the words of Nenge Mboko “Merry New Year.”
OK Cyberpunk can be great for a range of reasons, but I saw this repost from i09 on The Essential Cyberpunk reading list and thought, “A great list with some books I have not read. Wait! It’s a list for folks who need to send a just in time Christmas gift (assuming they are available as eBooks, which I know some are). I easily recommend Neuromancer, Snow Crash, and Mirrorshades. I look forward to reading the rest (Accelerando did not work for me but I may try it again). Plus this genre really does a great job of positing worlds and issues that are pressing the tech-law space right now, so that is another reason to jump in.
The New Yorker has a nice piece about Manu Prakash and his work on the Foldscope, a portable, paper-based microscope that costs about one dollar. As the author pointed out the whole thing can be put into “a nine-by-twelve-inch envelope.” Here are the details: The paper is printed with botanical illustrations and perforated with several shapes, which can be punched out and, with a series of origami-style folds, woven together into a single unit. The end result is about the size of a bookmark. The lens—a speck of plastic, situated in the center—provides a hundred and forty times magnification. The kit includes a second lens, of higher magnification, and a set of stick-on magnets, which can be used to attach the Foldscope to a smartphone, allowing for easy recording of a sample with the phone’s camera. I put my kit together in fifteen minutes, and when I popped the lens into place it was with the satisfaction of spreading the wings of a paper crane. The Foldscope performs most of the functions of a high-school lab microscope, but its parts cost less than a dollar. So what? So Prakash and his colleagues are trying to deploy the device around the world to increase the way people gather and share data to understand the world. Folks use the device but also can go to “Foldscope Explore, a Web site where recipients of the kits can share photos, videos, and commentary. A plant pathologist in Rwanda uses the Foldscope to study fungi afflicting banana crops. Maasai children in Tanzania examine bovine dung for parasites. An entomologist in the Peruvian Amazon has happened upon an unidentified species of mite. One man catalogues pollen; another tracks his dog’s menstrual cycle.” These seemingly far ranging interests thus connect to what Brett Frischmann, Mike Madison, and Kathy Strandburg have been studying: a knowledge commons. Just within Prakash’s interest in “biomimicry—understanding how and why certain organisms work so well, and using that knowledge to build new tools,” the project increases the ability to know about “Plants, insects, tiny bugs under the sink, bacteria,” that do amazing things. New species can be identified, and so the project creates thousands of eyes not only for Prakash’s work but others in the field. As I read the article and the details of low-cost tech being used around the world for a variety of problems that locals identified, I thought of the way FabLabs and the work of Neil Gershenfeld have approached and supported the maker-movement. And as I went on, I found out that Prakash did his work with Gershenfeld’s Center for Bits and Atoms at MIT. Can you say school of thought? Prakash’s group is looking for ways to aid in early detection of disease and water contamination using low-cost technology. At the same time, the world may be re-experiencing the wonder of the first tools that pushed our ability to understand the world. As the article described, Prakash and Jim Cybulski, (then Prakash’s student, now chief collaborator on...
A sister notices that her sister’s monitor for her blood sugar level has a weak alarm and does not work well to wake someone up at night, when the alert is critical. Sister decides maybe she can do something, and she does. Who is this mystery girl? Our own Danielle Citron shared with me (and let me share more) that her daughter, JJ, has been designing a new monitor to help diabetics (which her sister has). JJ applied to a program to help high schoolers with STEM projects and was paired with folks at Northrup Grumman where she spent a day a month developing her idea. Along the way, JJ had to figure out what alarm noise worked best to wake someone up, program a code to link the monitor and bracelet devices, and then wired them. As her school reports This year, Citron will continue to test and refine the design, creating the bracelet with the help of a 3D printer. When she’s finished, the bracelet will change color to let the user know immediately if their blood sugar is getting too high or too low. The detailed information from the monitor will also be linked to a smartphone app. 3D printing! Color coding! And JJ seems poised to go into computer science. Although I am friends with Dani and have met JJ, the real point for me is that a teenager saw a problem and felt she had the room to try and fix it. Then she worked on it. Her success is lovely, but the fact of the chance is downright excellent and puts me in a great holiday mood. Of course, with Danielle as her mom, JJ may have to look forward to law professors wondering about patents, privacy, and data ownership, but those are what a good friend of mine once called “high quality problems.” Well done, JJ.