Reading conflicting accounts of the Senate’s hearings on Judge Alito, I thought it might make sense to turn to the InTrade electronic futures market. This graph of the predicted likelihood of Alito’s confirmation is somewhat illuminating:
The trading history indicates a small run before the hearings began, but once the questioning started, Alito made a dramatic comeback. The last price I saw quoted was 97 (i.e., the traders think he has a 97% likelihood to be confirmed).
But that isn’t particularly surprising. I
data mined dug a bit deeper and found two other interesting results.