More Quick Impressions
The Medicaid issue (on which I am not an expert) strikes me as quite interesting and important. This represents the first time since the 1930s that the Court has enunciated any real limit on the Spending Clause (though the practical effect of this may be insignificant.)
I’m curious now to go back and look at what the lower courts said about the taxing power argument. Basically, I assumed that the tax and commerce arguments would rise and fall together, so I’m surprised to see that Chief Justice Roberts went in a different direction. If you buy what he says at pp. 41-44 of his opinion, then there is a meaningful distinction between the two points. Note that in footnote 11, though, that he concedes that failure to pay the tax can lead to prosecution for tax evasion, but that is not constitutionally relevant.
Finally, Justice Kennedy must be awfully deflated–he’s not the swing vote anymore.