Barry Bonds: The Likely Sentence

Yesterday, federal prosecutors asked that Barry Bonds be sentenced to 15 months in prison, following his conviction on one charge of obstruction of justice (18 U.S.C. § 1503). A probation officer has recommended that Bonds receive only probation, and Bonds himself (understandably) agrees with the officer’s assessment.  How realistic are these respective sentencing requests?

We’ll start with the relevant Sentencing Guideline for obstruction of justice (USSG § 2J1.2), which recommends a sentence of 15-21 months for a first offender, such as Bonds.  These Guidelines are only advisory (though extremely important), of course; ultimately, the governing text is 18 U.S.C. § 3553(a), which enumerates the factors to be considered in the formulation of a criminal sentence.

I won’t go through those factors here. Instead, I’ll relate what other defendants, arguably similarly situated to Bonds, have received in recent cases. Here, I sifted through data collected by the Administrative Office of the United States Courts for FY 2003 – FY 2007, which I compiled into a single database for another project a while back. (For full citations of these datasets, please go to footnote 119 here.)

The AOUSC data capture any and all criminal cases that terminated in federal district court between October 2002 and September 2007, providing a wealth of information regarding each matter. I separated out from this mass of data the handful of cases that entailed a single conviction under 18 U.S.C. § 1503, without any convictions for other offenses. The data do not relate whether the defendant in each of these cases was sentenced as a first offender, or not; nor do they indicate whether any departures or enhancements applied in a particular case. But they do reveal the sentence that was imposed in each matter.

What I found was that 30 of the 83 defendants whose cases terminated within this time frame and who were arguably similarly situated to Bonds, in that they were convicted upon plea or guilty verdict at trial of a single count under 18 U.S.C. § 1503, received only probation (and, in some cases, a fine) as their sentences. The remaining defendants received prison time, with the median term being 24 months (again, some of these defendants were almost assuredly not first offenders, accounting for the longer sentences). The prison sentences were quite spread out, such that they did not form a bell curve; no more than five defendants received any specific term. Of these, five defendants received five-month terms, five received 12-month terms, and another five received 18-months terms.

So, if these numbers are any guide (which, I concede, they may not be), it looks like Bonds has a pretty good argument for probation.

You may also like...