Will Kagan be the Next Supreme Court Justice?
First, I’m thrilled to be guest blogging at Concurring Opinions. I look forward to an illuminating conversation regarding the Supreme Court’s next justice.
Mike Allen at Politico reports that, based on White House sources, Elena Kagan will be the next Supreme Court justice (thanks to Dave Hoffman for sending the story). Author of the reliable “Playbook” on Politico, Mike Allen is a force to be reckoned with. Of course, once word leaked that Kagan was the one, the White House sought to diffuse the rumors, claiming the president has not yet made his decision. This leads to speculation, of course, over whether the White House is floating a test balloon. They may want to test the reaction to hot-button issues like Kagan’s opposition to military recruiters at Harvard, which would undoubtedly be a dominant theme in a Kagan confirmation process.
My prediction for the next justice, which I realize is probably now incorrect given the latest developments, was Judge Diane Wood. Back in December, Mike Sacks at First One at One First made a compelling case for Judge Wood. Above the Law also makes an in-depth argument for Wood. In addition, the New York Times had an interesting story a few weeks ago about Judge Wood’s persuasive abilities, at times even winning over her conservative — and legendary — colleagues, Judges Posner and Easterbrook. That story further convinced me that Wood would be the one. President Obama may see her as a potentially persuasive force on a polarized Supreme Court. But she is widely perceived to be more liberal than Kagan, and she has an established judicial record. Though I will say that if a Kagan confirmation process turned almost completely on the military recruiters issue, then Kagan is going to be perceived as quite liberal and painted as extreme in her views. So in the end, who would really be perceived as more liberal once the confirmation process starts gaining momentum? Kagan or Wood?