Mike Allen Predicts 65 Yes Votes for Kagan

In today’s Playbook, Mike Allen (of Politico) predicts that Kagan will receive 65 votes in favor of confirmation. Part of the basis for his prediction comes from the roll-call vote on her nomination for Solicitor General. Seven Republicans voted in favor of her SG nomination:  Coburn (OK), Collins (ME), Gregg (NH), Hatch (UT), Kyl (AZ), Lugar (IN), and Snowe (ME). The vote was 61-31 (7 senators — 4 Dems, 3 Repubs — did not vote).

While the vote on Kagan’s SG nomination can help guide a prediction on the vote for her Supreme Court nomination, let’s remember that voting for a lifetime appointment on the Supreme Court and voting for a political appointment in the executive branch are two entirely different beasts. In short, we should not assume that because a senator voted for Kagan for SG that s/he will definitely vote for her Supreme Court nomination. To be fair, Allen does not automatically assume that all 7 Republicans who voted for her SG nomination will vote for her Supreme Court nomination. But of the 7, he predicts that Coburn, Hatch, and Kyl will vote no and the remaining 4 will vote yes.

Christopher Snow Hopkins of the Ninth Justice has written a compelling article on this topic. Sen. Hatch’s and Specter’s remarks — quoted from the article below — are particularly relevant:

Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, promised a thorough evaluation of Kagan’s legal career, as well as her judicial philosophy, which he identified as “the more important qualification.” But he cautioned that his support for Kagan’s nomination to solicitor general last year was no guarantee of “her qualifications for the Supreme Court or my obligation to support her.”

Sen. Arlen Specter, D-Pa., who voted not to appoint Kagan as solicitor general, said that he would consider voting for her this time around depending on her testimony on such issues as executive power, warrantless wiretapping, voting rights, congressional rights and a woman’s right to choose.

“I voted against her for solicitor general because she wouldn’t answer basic questions about her standards for handling that job,” he said. “It is a distinctly different position than that of a Supreme Court justice.”

You may also like...