Lewis Libby (66%) Guilty

Dave Hoffman

Dave Hoffman is the Murray Shusterman Professor of Transactional and Business Law at Temple Law School. He specializes in law and psychology, contracts, and quantitative analysis of civil procedure. He currently teaches contracts, civil procedure, corporations, and law and economics.

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5 Responses

  1. Dan Markel says:

    I’ve got to think the markets are screwed up on this. My somewhat informed guess is that we’re looking at an acquittal or a hung jury on most counts. At this point, conviction seems very unlikely. (And, no, I’m not trying to move the prediction market with my statement. I’ve been losing enough the last few days in the regular equity markets to keep me chastened…)

  2. Scott Moss says:

    Re flipping a coin: when I was a district court clerk, my co-clerk and I had a running joke about what we should say to (the surprisingly many) lawyers who call up to ask (really complain) about when their motion will be decided. The only answer we were authorized to give, of course, was that we have no answer. What I really wanted to say was, “oh, if you’d like, I can tell you about our Expedited Motion Decision Procedure.” “Sure, what’s that,” they’d then say. “Well,” I’d respond, “the party that makes the request gets a decision on the motion in one day — and that party loses the motion.” I kept offering to buy my co-clerk lunch if she’d use that line, but for some reason she never took me up on the offer.

  3. Misreading the market says:

    Yes, but 66% is only clear and convincing, and Fitzgerald needs at least 95%, or beyond a reasonable doubt.

  4. Bruce Boyden says:

    In related news, Libby’s cat is 50% dead.

  5. Dan Markel says:

    Jury Finds Libby Guilty on 4 of 5 Counts

    Oh well, I guess the prediction markets are doing better than I am…